Progressive Pattern Over The South

It has been awhile since I have written much about Oak Ridge and the rest of East Tennessee. However, today is as good a day as any to get back on the horse.

Things are shaping up to be something very interesting in terms of snowy/sleet/rain mixtures. Current models and forecasts are for the accumulating snow to be up to the north, closer to the TN/KY border than in Oak Ridge.

As I write this post, national RADAR shows the rain is pushing into the area from the south and west. However, it appears to be in the form of virga. Virga is when the rain evaporates in the air between the cloud it fell from, and the ground. The rain is associated with a low that is currently still sitting over Central Texas. This low pressure is not very strong. This image shows the vorticity(uplift) surrounding the low, the uplift is what is causing the clouds, and the precipitation. Much of the precipitation at the moment is in Louisiana and Southern Mississippi and Alabama.

The brighter colors indicate positive vorticity. The numbers are pressure heights

This is the GFS map of the same thing.

The GFS shows just how weak this system is. The GFS is has the low as very disorganized. The GFS is also brings the low and the cold front to the south of East Tennessee, meaning we will have winds shift from out of the east, to the north and then to the northwest.




This low is going to make its way towards Tennessee, and the precipitation will move into the area overnight and into tomorrow. Along with the low, there is a cold front which will pass just to the south of East Tennessee on Sunday morning. While the cold front is to our south, temperatures will not get very high Sunday. The high will be sometime during church, and as you make your way to lunch, the wind will be shifting from the NE, to out of the NNW. The temperatures will drop from then on. Highs around East Tennessee should only make it into the mid-40s.

Once this system clears out Sunday night, temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 20s. Sunday night is when there may be some snowflakes, and in SE KY there will be some accumulation, but not much.
The mountains should also get some snow due to the altitude. Monday and Tuesday show a slight warming trend, with lows in the mid-upper 30s, and highs getting back to near 60 on Tuesday before another system looks to make an appearance Wednesday into Thursday. None of these systems are very strong, nor are they bringing with them lots of cold air because they are coming up to us out of the deep Southwest. We are under a progressive pattern with systems steaming across the country every few days, keeping us wet, but not really cold. Things do not seem to be changing until next weekend or early next week. Then we MAY finally get out of this pattern, and get a low from the Northwest instead of the Southwest. If this is the case, March may very well come in like a lion! Gotta love old wives' tales!